🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans improving collectively. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still